Business Confidence Index H1.25 Published

Robust demand for short-term export credit insurance as global trade growth accelerates while longer-tenor coverage holds steady, supported by defence and infrastructure needs. Geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainties - compounded by economic pressures in Germany, automotive sector struggles, and sovereign debt concerns in Western Africa - cast a shadow over the claims outlook.

Strong confidence exists in rising demand for short-term export credit insurance, driven by global trade growth, projected to grow at its fastest pace since 2021. However, a hardening pricing environment continues to challenge smaller providers.

New demand for longer-tenor coverage is supported by defence transactions, especially in Europe, and growing demand for infrastructure projects in developing economies, with multilaterals continuing to crowd-in private insurers.

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