Business Confidence Index Dashboard

Tracking Market Demand and Claims Sentiment in the Export Credit Insurance Industry

The Berne Union’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021 and serves as a forward-looking indicator of sentiment in the export credit insurance industry, focusing on market demand and claims activity.

The Index reflects Berne Union members' six-month outlook on demand and claims, distinguishing between short-term (ST) and medium- to long-term (MLT) commercial and/or political risk.

Please explore the dashboard below to view the latest market sentiment and trends, and you can access the full report here.

The methodology follows a diffusion index approach, where respondents indicate whether sentiment is increasing (100), decreasing (0), or unchanged (50). A score of 50 signals no change from the previous period, while a value above 50 suggests expansion, and a value below 50 indicates contraction.

Member are also asked to add their comments explaining the reason for their sentiment towards demand and claims, including a watchlist of countries, sectors, and borrowers for potential emerging claims.

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BCI

2026 H1 Analysis

  • The short-term demand outlook has strengthened, with sentiment rising to 66.1 from 57.7, reflecting growing optimism among ECAs. Momentum is being driven by newly signed bilateral trade agreements and increased exporter appetite for cover in markets facing worsening geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
  • However, this confidence is tempered by policy uncertainty. The sustainability of improved demand expectations remains unclear, as the trade agreements supporting sentiment may be overshadowed by the temporary 10% global tariffs introduced following the termination of the unlawful IEEPA tariffs, clouding the near-term trade environment.
  • Data centres are emerging as a notable new driver of medium- and long-term enquiries, underpinned by accelerating AI investment and hyperscaler cloud expansion. Additional interest in nuclear and aviation-related projects is expected to further support MLT demand.
  • Short-term claims expectations have increased, with sentiment rising to 67.0 from 61.0, as insurers anticipate greater exposure to higher-risk markets. Forecasts of a 5% rise in global insolvencies in 2026, combined with tariffs on steel, aluminium, autos, copper, and timber, are expected to place further strain on supply chains and buyer liquidity.
  • Medium- and long-term demand sentiment remains firm but stable at 62.0. Confidence continues to be anchored in defence, energy transition, and critical minerals sectors, although some respondents caution that the exceptionally large transaction volumes seen in 2025 may not be repeated.
  • MLT claims sentiment has edged up slightly to 52.3, reflecting persistent concerns over sovereign debt stress in Africa. At the same time, shifts in U.S. policy are prompting closer scrutiny of renewable energy projects and sectors most exposed to tariff-related risks.