Business Confidence Index Dashboard
Tracking Market Demand and Claims Sentiment in the Export Credit Insurance Industry
The Berne Union’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021 and serves as a forward-looking indicator of sentiment in the export credit insurance industry, focusing on market demand and claims activity.
The Index reflects Berne Union members' six-month outlook on demand and claims, distinguishing between short-term (ST) and medium- to long-term (MLT) commercial and/or political risk.
Please explore the dashboard below to view the latest market sentiment and trends, and you can access the full report here.
The methodology follows a diffusion index approach, where respondents indicate whether sentiment is increasing (100), decreasing (0), or unchanged (50). A score of 50 signals no change from the previous period, while a value above 50 suggests expansion, and a value below 50 indicates contraction.
Member are also asked to add their comments explaining the reason for their sentiment towards demand and claims, including a watchlist of countries, sectors, and borrowers for potential emerging claims.
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2025 H1 Analysis
- There’s a sense of cautious optimism for the second half of the year as short-term export credit insurance (55.0) and longer-tenor cover (54.1) demand is expected to rise modestly, with sentiment for both product lines scoring below their index mean.
- Members signal that opportunities for growth lie in supporting SMEs and investment in renewables and the green transition.
- There is strong belief that claims under short-term policies will rise in the second half of the year, with a score of 80.8, while members hold a more positive outlook for longer-tenor claims (44.5) with an expected fall.
- For short-term cover, members have highlighted Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, and Argentina has region they are most watchful of; construction and consumer goods are the sectors being closely monitored due their higher sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions.
- Debt sustainability developments have meant lower sovereign-related claims under longer-tenor cover, but members remain vigilant towards countries in delicate fiscal positions, predominately in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
- Overwhelming consensus that macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty will shape demand and claims over the next six months. Navigating geopolitical risks and the impact of conflicts are seen by many as the biggest challenges in the second half of the year, and concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty still linger.