Business Confidence Index Dashboard
Tracking Market Demand and Claims Sentiment in the Export Credit Insurance Industry
The Berne Union’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021 and serves as a forward-looking indicator of sentiment in the export credit insurance industry, focusing on market demand and claims activity.
The Index reflects Berne Union members' six-month outlook on demand and claims, distinguishing between short-term (ST) and medium- to long-term (MLT) commercial and/or political risk.
Please explore the dashboard below to view the latest market sentiment and trends, and you can access the full report here.
The methodology follows a diffusion index approach, where respondents indicate whether sentiment is increasing (100), decreasing (0), or unchanged (50). A score of 50 signals no change from the previous period, while a value above 50 suggests expansion, and a value below 50 indicates contraction.
Member are also asked to add their comments explaining the reason for their sentiment towards demand and claims, including a watchlist of countries, sectors, and borrowers for potential emerging claims.
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2025 H2 Analysis
- The weighted index shows a stable market outlook for short-term export credit insurance (52.2), as the steady confidence of large private insurers balances the cautious outlook of providers with greater exposure to tariff impacts.
- Trade policy disruption continues to shape short-term demand expectations. While some providers foresee suppressed demand due to reduced trade volumes, others anticipate a possible rebound once exporters adapt to the new trading environment and explore coverage once tariffs are fully implemented.
- Moderate growth is expected for longer-tenor cover (58.3), led by private insurers seeking to capitalise on demand for infrastructure projects and expanded collaboration with MDBs and DFIs. Public insurers maintain a stable outlook but expect to attract new clients for infrastructure and defence-related exports.
- Claims outlook under short-term policies remains elevated (71.1), though showing some improvement from earlier in the year. The primary driver is the anticipated pressure tariffs will place on buyers’ ability to pay, heightening default risk.
- Sector-specific concerns centre on industries most vulnerable to tariff impacts, particularly steel and automotive, as well as overcapacity issues in the solar sector.
- Anticipated claims activity under longer-tenor cover remains limited (54.9), consistent with historical trends. Concerns persist around sovereign debt risks in Africa, however, particularly in Senegal, as well as exposures in solar and offshore wind projects in the U.S., and existing projects in Russia.