Business Confidence Index Q4.21
2021 looks set to end on a high, with a predicted upsurge in demand for cover matched by continued strong risk appetite among underwriters. A moderate anticipated rise in claims may meanwhile presage a smooth normalisation beyond the low COVID-baseline
Notwithstanding some emerging headwinds for trade, growth in demand for ST export credit insurance is expected to sustain through the end of the year, buoyed by rising commodity prices.
While MLT business dipped in the third quarter, respondents predict a significant upsurge in demand for this business line during 4Q in line with recovering levels of foreign direct investment.
4Q is predicted to see higher claims paid across both business lines. However, taken in the context of record low ST claims paid during the pandemic, this appears to be more of a smooth normalisation rather than the start of an avalanche.
