Business Confidence Index Q2.22
Underwriters are tightening risk appetite in response to emerging claims, inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, while elevated commodity prices and investment in new projects keep demand strong
Global trade prospects for the first quarter of 2022 changed radically in late February with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This has a knock-on impact on the outlook for export credit insurance and is reflected by a significant shift in the overall sentiment and expectations reported by Berne Union members for this report.
Simmering fears around supply chain shortages and widespread inflation have only been further exacerbated by the sparking of geopolitical tensions, and the impact on both trade and credit risk are already evident.
These factors have both immediate and long-term consequences for credit and political risk as well as affecting the demand for insurance. While insurers are expecting to pay higher claims in the coming period, these are well provisioned and there is no indication of an unmanageable level.