The middle road to higher-value trade

As Kazakhstan assumes a more prominent role in global export finance, Ayan Bektybayeva discusses how the Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan is supporting the country’s industrial ambitions and growing international reach.

Kazakhstan has set a target of nearly EUR 45 billion in non-commodity exports by 2030. As the Deputy Chairman, what does that ambition translate into concretely for Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan in terms of the sectors you’re prioritising, the instruments you’re deploying, and where you still see coverage gaps?

Reaching nearly EUR 45 billion in non-commodity exports by 2030 means almost 70% growth in just four years. That requires new industrial projects, expansion of manufacturing, diversification into new markets, and a business environment that genuinely encourages investment.

Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan has supported exporters through the full export cycle for more than a decade: financing new production facilities and helping exporters enter unfamiliar markets while building relationships with new buyers.

As part of its broader industrial strategy, the Government of Kazakhstan is shifting its focus from raw material exports toward higher value-added manufacturing. Currently, there are 17 major industrial projects worth approximately USD 31 billion that were approved by the government in order to support this transition. These investments span strategic sectors including petrochemicals, fertilisers, automotive manufacturing, and gas processing.

Notable examples include the KazAzot Prime ammonia and urea plant (KZT 487 billion); KMG PetroChem’s terephthalic acid and PET facility, with an annual production capacity of 735,000 tonnes; Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan, which will assemble Changan, Chery, and Haval vehicles with a capacity of 90,000 units per year; and Phase II of the Silleno project, the country's first integrated gas chemical complex, adding 1.25 million tonnes of polyethylene production annually.

Underwriting these projects is a genuinely different exercise. Most are greenfield, so there’s no audited history to underwrite against. We’re assessing management and shareholder expertise, the commercial viability of the project, and whether comparable technologies have worked elsewhere.

Our loan insurance product, introduced more than a decade ago as an alternative to the collateral banks would otherwise require, has been increasingly important. It has functioned almost as an exporter incubator, giving banks room to lend further and exporters a path to financing capital-intensive projects.

On the horizon, I see the greatest opportunity in expanding co-insurance and reinsurance partnerships. Larger, more sophisticated projects increasingly need the combined capacity of different institutions, and Kazakhstan’s exporters sit on both sides of that relationship, as both importers of equipment and technology and reliable suppliers of industrial goods.

Diversification beyond oil, gas, and raw materials is central to Kazakhstan’s economic strategy. Which sectors present the most underwritable opportunity right now, and are there new product structures or guarantee instruments Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan is developing specifically to support exporters and investors in those areas?

Downstream oil and gas processing, particularly petrochemicals, along with logistics and transport infrastructure, offer the strongest opportunities today. Both are central to Kazakhstan’s move further up the value chain.

Agribusiness has exceptional long-term potential too, given the country’s vast arable land and pasture and its long tradition of crop and livestock production. There is substantial room to grow as an exporter of agricultural products and processed food.

Kazakhstan also has outstanding renewable energy potential, among the global leaders in wind resources, and one of Eurasia’s more promising locations for solar, with nuclear investment planned alongside. If that combination produces an energy surplus once the nuclear plant is commissioned, we’re prepared to introduce dedicated products to support cross-border energy exports.

Our insurance products were originally designed as universal instruments. As our portfolio has grown, we’ve increasingly tailored our underwriting methodology to the specific risks of individual sectors, particularly energy transition projects. Although we work on adapting our methodologies to specific sectors and trends, we believe the energy transition will require us to develop entirely new methodologies.

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route has attracted significant international attention. From an underwriting perspective, which risks along the corridor are well-covered today, and where do you see genuine financing or insurance gaps that Berne Union members or international banks could help fill?

The Middle Corridor’s success depends on more than physical infrastructure. Modern hard infrastructure, digital systems, logistics services, and seamless cross-border coordination all have to work together. Speed, reliability, and best-in-class end-to-end technology are the measures of performance here.

Capital has to move as efficiently as goods. Logistics can’t function without trade finance and risk mitigation behind it, which means active participation from commercial banks, clearing institutions, Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), and reinsurers.

On individual segments of the corridor, standard commercial and trade risks are generally well covered. The harder challenge is managing risk across the corridor as a whole, as one integrated route rather than a series of national markets.

The most significant gap today is the lack of comprehensive, multi-jurisdictional insurance covering political, commercial, and transit risk across the entire supply chain, rather than within a single country. This is where Berne Union members and international financial institutions can contribute most through syndicated trade finance, co-insurance, longer-tenor reinsurance capacity, and coordinated risk-sharing that helps unlock bigger investment in the corridor’s infrastructure and the trade flows it’s meant to support.

With extensive underwriting experience across Central Asia, we stand ready to support these collaborative efforts by contributing our regional expertise to the structuring and management of complex cross-border risks.

Critical minerals are a strategic priority for governments and industries worldwide, and Kazakhstan holds significant reserves. What types of insurance and guarantee structures are being used or developed to support mineral extraction and processing projects? How is Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan navigating the geopolitical dimensions of that investment, given competing interest from multiple major powers?

Kazakhstan holds significant reserves of critical minerals and rare earth elements, which puts the country in an increasingly important position in global supply chains for advanced manufacturing and clean tech.

That said, our mandate is narrower than the category of “critical minerals” itself. Export Credit Agency’s role is to support the export of value-added products, not raw commodities, so the question we ask is whether a project includes downstream processing and localises higher-value production within Kazakhstan. If it does, we’re prepared to provide insurance and guarantee support. Projects that simply extract and export raw material fall outside our mandate, regardless of how strategically important the mineral is.

As an ECA, we view this issue pragmatically and with absolute neutrality. Our priority is straightforward: we look for deep domestic processing, project commercial viability, and diversified off-take and supply risks. We evaluate every proposal through the lens of counterparty reliability and national interest, not political considerations. By backing initiatives oriented toward diverse global markets, we effectively eliminate monopolistic dependence on any single buyer or jurisdiction.

Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan has been working towards closer alignment with OECD export credit standards. What has that process actually required you to change, in terms of underwriting criteria, due diligence, and environmental and social standards? Has that created any friction with domestic exporters or with the projects Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan is asked to support?

The OECD Arrangement has always been the foundation of our underwriting methodology, including risk assessment and pricing. From the beginning, our objective has been to build an institution fully integrated into the international export finance system, which requires transparent due diligence and consistent risk management practices.

Our alignment has strengthened our credibility and ability to collaborate internationally. It allows us to maintain obligatory reinsurance treaties with leading reinsurers and to structure increasingly sophisticated cross-border transactions alongside our international counterparts.

The transition to higher ESG standards has been one of the more demanding areas. While most exporters recognise its value, embedding it in day-to-day operations takes new processes and expertise that don’t develop overnight. The friction, where it exists, is practical rather than a disagreement over whether the standards are sound. Beyond setting expectations, our role in part is to help exporters through that transition.

How has your underwriting methodology evolved in the face of mounting geopolitical instability, for example in how you model buyer risk, assess country exposure, or think about insuring projects along routes like the Middle Corridor that pass through multiple jurisdictions with differing risk profiles?

Geopolitical developments now have an immediate effect on exporters, and that cuts both ways. Sanctions or new non-tariff barriers can make a market unviable almost overnight, while the same disruption can open opportunities elsewhere.

That’s changed how we underwrite. Rather than relying on static assumptions, we continuously reassess country exposure, buyer risk, and transit risk as conditions evolve, which matters even more on a multi-jurisdictional route like the Middle Corridor, where the risk profile depends on developments across several countries.

What underwriting means day to day is evolving, too. It’s no longer just a coverage decision; we work with exporters in advance on practical mitigation: alternative transport routes, different settlement currencies, structured letters of credit, whatever fits the situation. Agility is now as crucial as technical expertise to keeping export markets open and bolstering confidence.

If national ECAs shy away from new projects and complex geographies out of risk aversion, especially in today’s rapidly changing landscape, the country will ultimately lose long-term business opportunities in promising new markets.

The Spring Meeting in Astana concluded with Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan signing strategic agreements with several international export-import banks, focused on reinsurance and co-financing. What does implementation look like over the next few years? What capabilities or partnerships does Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan most need from the wider Berne Union community?

Hosting the Berne Union Spring Meeting in Astana was important for us in part because of what it allowed our partners to see for themselves: Kazakhstan’s investment climate, the government’s commitment to open cooperation, and the real momentum behind the country’s industrial transformation. Those things can be harder to convey through statistics and presentations alone.

The agreements signed during the meeting give us a solid foundation to build on. ECAs traditionally operate under national mandates that can limit cooperation in practice. Kazakhstan’s current stage of development works against that constraint: our export-oriented industries need financing to import the equipment and technology that will expand future exports, while international institutions are looking for a trusted local partner who understands the regulatory environment and project risk. Export Credit Agency of Kazakhstan is well positioned to bridge that gap.

There is real potential to expand cooperation through co-financing, co-insurance, reinsurance, and joint transaction structuring. That’s good for us and creates opportunities for international suppliers and technology providers, particularly as companies think about localising production closer to raw materials and fast-growing regional markets. With a stable policy framework and a genuine commitment to international partnership, this is a good time for Kazakhstan to deepen that role.