The 2026 Bifurcation: Diverging conditions in global credit and surety markets

As trade credit insurers contend with a fracturing global economy, ICISA’s Q1 2026 Business Sentiment Survey reveals a market pulling in two directions at once.

The International Credit Insurance & Surety Association (ICISA) recently unveiled its Q1 2026 Business Sentiment Survey (BSS). It reveals a market transitioning from a period of disciplined stability into what analysts are terming ‘The 2026 Bifurcation’: a growing divide between product lines under strain, chiefly Trade Credit Insurance (TCI), where claims and insolvencies are rising, and those demonstrating resilience, notably Surety and Credit and Political Risk Insurance (CPRI).

ICISA undertakes the Business Sentiment Survey alongside our collaboration with the Berne Union on the Business Confidence Index. The BCI gives an invaluable, forward-looking indicator of perceptions from insurers and Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) over short-term and medium- to long-term risks, demonstrating the depth of insights our members bring to the wider world. The BSS on the other hand allows ICISA to delve a little deeper into topics, time horizons, and emerging themes to get a sense of how the private sector views a range of issues over time.

While the industry landscape in mid-2025 was characterised by steady demand, manageable losses, and a pragmatic pricing environment, the Q1 edition of the BSS looking at the opening months of 2026 has introduced a pronounced divergence across different sectors. Today, markets are balancing robust structural demand against severe pricing pressures and escalating insolvency risks in the real economy. The survey was carried out before the start of the current round of hostilities in the Middle East. A subsequent meeting of ICISA members showed a continued decline in optimism about the risk environment on a six- and twelve-month perspective.

Sectoral divergence: Stress vs. resilience

ICISA has captured granular, dedicated data for CPRI and Reinsurance alongside traditional TCI and Surety segments. The results indicate meaningful operational contrasts between these different product types. TCI lines demonstrate the perception of increased stress in the real economy, with 60% of survey respondents anticipating an increase in claims and 70% forecasting higher insolvencies as historically low post-pandemic claims revert to long-term historical averages.

In response to this tightening macroeconomic environment, TCI buyers are shifting demand toward more tailored risk-mitigation solutions. The data indicates that 70% of respondents report rising demand for non-cancellable credit limits, while 60% see increased traction for excess of loss structures. Risk-sharing syndications and top-up covers have also experienced a 50% surge in interest. While these structures are still a minority of business flow, the increased demand is revealing about the nature of the evolving risk environment for policyholders.

In contrast, the Surety and CPRI lines present a more resilient front for the risks they underwrite. This could reflect different risk tenors, although that remains to be seen. The Surety sector reflects a highly stable risk profile; 71% of market participants expect corporate insolvencies to remain flat in the near term, with only 29% fearing an increase. However, Surety demand is undergoing a significant ‘duration shift’. Driven by large-scale global construction, public-private partnerships, and long-term infrastructure projects, average contract tenors are lengthening from traditional two-year commitments to five-year horizons, a trend noted by 56% of practitioners.

Meanwhile, the CPRI sector is experiencing strong momentum, with 67% reporting increased demand over the past year, driven primarily by Financial Institutions (FIs). This financial-sector growth, cited by 78% of CPRI respondents, is largely motivated by capital relief requirements (44%) and exposure management (44%), targeting fast-expanding asset classes like defence deals and data centre portfolios.

Technological acceleration and reinsurance exposure

A central theme cutting across the survey results is the rapid pivot from artificial intelligence (AI) exploration to full-scale operational deployment. Across the entire membership, AI adoption is high, with 80% of TCI firms, 73% of reinsurers, 60% of CPRI, and 56% of Surety providers already utilising AI within daily frameworks. Looking ahead twelve months, these figures are expected to skyrocket, with up to 93% of reinsurers and 90% of TCI players planning expanded integration. Primary deployment channels focus heavily on risk underwriting (led by Surety at 90%) and risk modelling.

This technological push is particularly vital for reinsurers, who occupy the most precarious position in the threat radar. Reinsurance exhibits the highest claims concern in the entire ecosystem, with 73% expecting an increase in claims and 67% anticipating real-economy insolvencies, forcing them to accelerate investment in tech-enabled modelling to safeguard underwriting integrity.

ESG: Opportunities and scale barriers

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria continue to represent the frontier of new market generation, with renewable energy, energy efficiency, and green construction highlighted as top opportunities across TCI, Surety, and CPRI alike. Despite this optimism, the path to scaling ESG remains constrained by severe structural headwinds. The primary barriers cited include intense pricing pressure (where green pricing fails to accurately reflect technical risk), emerging and frontier technologies (such as hydrogen or advanced battery storage), and highly uneven regulatory legislation across international markets. Compounding these hurdles is a notable shift in US policy away from ESG-aligned frameworks, introducing additional uncertainty.

Taken together, the survey suggests that the relatively stable conditions seen across much of the market in recent years are giving way to increasingly differentiated conditions across products and markets. The emerging bifurcation will be a key development to monitor in the months ahead.

Reflections of ICISA’s departing Executive Director

After spending some six years at ICISA and 37 years in the industry, ICISA’s Executive Director Richard Wulff will leave the Association at the end of this year. Reflecting on this period, Richard says: “Our industry is unrecognisable in comparison to the late eighties. From an industry with a predominantly domestic character, it has evolved into a worldwide insurance community serving 240 countries and territories globally. Several waves of concentration in the market have led to a few dominant players with the intellectual and financial capacity to make several jumps in technology and methodologies. This contributes to the ability of the industry to serve expanding and different client groups, by providing them with financial solidity and strengthening the credit management of policyholders.

Expansion is the sign of a healthy business. Our biggest challenge is closing the finance gap. We will be able to contribute to this by offering affordable, understandable, and manageable solutions for SMEs throughout the world. Our cover is much more than a promise of indemnification in case of buyer non-payment; it offers the possibility for SMEs to be financed as the insurer can provide investment-grade collateral. With this, we fulfil our social obligation towards the economies and societies we serve. Importantly, neither the private sector nor the public sector can do this alone. This presents a demand for continued collaboration between members of the Berne Union and ICISA.”